So the cease fire?

At last. Setting aside the politics of the issue, let’s have an audit of winners and losers.

- Civilians on both sides. Massive losers. Death, injury destruction of property and livelihood. Disaster for them.
- Israeli government. Entered the war to destroy Hizbollah and get their two soldiers back. Failed on both counts. Have killed some Hizbollah, but they will easily be replaced by a whole new generation who’ve seen their family killed. Soldiers remain in captivity.
- Hizbollah. Have lost men and material, but they can be replaced. Have massive authority in Lebanon as the only force who can “stand up” to Israel.
- America. Satiated its own Jewish lobby, alienated everyone else. Bloody stupid. Lost any remaining shreds of moral authority in the region.
- The UN. Weak. Impotent.
- Tony Blair. More than ever, George’s poodle.

The whole tragic cycle was utterly predictable, and could have been stopped much earlier (see this poster’s ideas 18th July).

But it’s not over yet.

The weak and lightly armed “peacekeeping” force will suffer casualties and withdraw at some stage. And then, sound the bell for round 2. So really, Hizbollah won’t disarm. Nor will Israel, and more fighting and death lies in the future, unless the territorial dispute is settled.