Predictable consequences

Does anyone read it, or apply even a basic analysis? I fear not.

I recall a conversation my friend John and I had, in a Casino just before the start of the Iraq war. It would have been a Friday or Saturday night. Given the them impending attack, we concluded:

1. Iraqi WMD ('cos I at least, believed the dossier to a degree) weren't a threat because Saddam could never use his (as we were told) limited capacity, because of the mutually assured destruction concept. And the "Brits 45 minutes from Doom" tabloid headline was laughable.
2. The likelihood of secular fascist Saddam selling or otherwise giving WMD to religious fundamentalist Bin Laden was nil, because (a) that was comic book stuff, and (b) Bin Laden would most likely turn the weapons on Saddam himself
3. The major combat (or drive) to Baghdad was a 72 hour operation (it took a bit longer for logistical reasons rather than organised resistance)
4. Giving the entire population small arms as Saddam was, meant the likelihood of an extended Vietnam style guerilla war
5. The ultimate result, would be an Iraq in name only, and on the ground it would splinter into three major areas, Kurdistan to the North (which is now virtually self-governing) and a Shi'ia South, with major Iraninan influence and a rump, bloody Baghdad in the middle, with low-level, long term conflict for a very, very long time.

I recall the conversation as if it were yesterday. No prizes for being 100% right. But if two amateur historian drunks can do it, it's slightly worrying, that no-on in government seems to have seen it.

However, a leaked memo, from the outgoing British "Ambassador" to Iraq today, conceded the scenario.

They know what's gonna happen and they are powerless to stop it. This is the biggest foreign policy blunder since WW2, even at Suez, we at least got out fast.

I predict the following government line.

(a) continuing denial that there is a civil war
(b) disengagement ASAP
(c) refusal to comment on "leaked" memos

on-going denial. These people should be on trial for the waste of billions, more seriously, sending brave Brits to their futile deaths, and making the middle east (and therefore Britain) way more dangerous.